Cognitive bias Study Guide

📖 Core Concepts Cognitive bias – systematic deviation from rational or normative judgment caused by reliance on a subjective reality rather than objective input. Heuristic – mental shortcut that speeds up decisions but can generate predictable errors. Bounded rationality – limits on information, time, and computational ability that force people to use heuristics. Ecological rationality – the view that heuristics are adaptively useful in the environments for which they evolved. Attribute substitution – swapping a hard‑to‑solve judgment with an easier, related one (e.g., “how confident am I?” → “how easy is the question to answer?”). Reference class forecasting – debiasing method that takes an outside view by comparing a target case to a statistical base of similar past cases. 📌 Must Remember Representativeness heuristic → leads to the conjunction fallacy (Linda problem). Availability heuristic → probability judged by ease of recall. Affect heuristic → decisions driven by emotional reaction, not objective risk. Framing effect – different choices arise from equivalent problem descriptions. Anchoring – initial value unduly influences subsequent estimates. Sunk‑cost fallacy – persistence with a losing option because of already‑incurred resources. Bias blind spot – we see others’ biases but not our own. Self‑enhancement biases (egocentric, self‑serving) protect positive self‑image. Higher Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) scores → lower susceptibility to many biases. 🔄 Key Processes Attribute Substitution Identify the target judgment → notice it is complex → substitute with a simpler, related cue → make the decision based on the cue. Reference Class Forecasting Define the decision problem → locate a reference class of similar past projects → collect statistical outcomes → adjust the forecast toward the class mean (outside view). Controlled‑Processing Debiasing Prompt the thinker → suppress automatic heuristic → engage deliberate, effortful reasoning → check for bias indicators (e.g., ignoring base rates). 🔍 Key Comparisons Representativeness vs. Availability Representativeness: “How similar does it look?” → misjudges probability. Availability: “How easily does it come to mind?” → misjudges frequency. Hot vs. Cold Biases Hot: driven by emotion/motivated reasoning (affect heuristic). Cold: driven by ignoring relevant info or framing (neglect of probability, framing effect). Ecological Rationality vs. Classic Rationality Ecological: heuristics are adaptive shortcuts for real‑world environments. Classic: deviations are errors relative to normative models (e.g., expected utility). ⚠️ Common Misunderstandings “All biases are irrational.” → Many are adaptive in typical environments (Gigerenzer). “Debiasing eliminates bias completely.” → It reduces but rarely removes bias; requires sustained effort and incentives. “Heuristics = mistakes.” → Heuristics are efficient tools; errors arise when the heuristic is misapplied. 🧠 Mental Models / Intuition “Fast & Frugal” – think of the brain as a time‑pressed scout: it picks the most salient cue and makes a quick call; later, you can audit that call with a slower, systematic review. “Outside vs. Inside view” – inside view = personal story; outside view = statistical base rate. Switch to the outside view when estimates feel overly optimistic. 🚩 Exceptions & Edge Cases When probability information is highly salient, the availability heuristic may improve accuracy (e.g., recent natural disasters). Motivated reasoning can amplify hot biases but may be muted when incentives reward accuracy over self‑image. High‑ability individuals still show bias blind spot; ability does not guarantee meta‑awareness. 📍 When to Use Which Use Reference Class Forecasting for project timelines, cost estimates, or any prediction with a rich historical database. Apply Controlled Processing when the decision stakes are high or when you notice framing/anchoring cues. Rely on Fast Heuristics (availability, representativeness) for low‑stakes, time‑pressured judgments where detailed analysis is impractical. 👀 Patterns to Recognize “The story feels right” → likely representativeness or availability bias. Numbers that start the problem → watch for anchoring. Choice framed as loss vs. gain → anticipate a framing effect shift. “I’ve already invested X, so I must continue” → classic sunk‑cost cue. 🗂️ Exam Traps Distractor that mentions “rational” – may tempt you to label a bias as irrational when the question is testing ecological rationality. Answer choices that swap “probability” with “frequency” – look for the availability vs. representativeness distinction. Options that list “emotions” as a cold bias – remember affect heuristic is a hot bias. “Debiasing always works” – the correct answer will note limited effectiveness and need for incentives or training. --- Study tip: Review each bullet, then close the book and try to explain the concept in one sentence to a peer. If you stumble, revisit that bullet—this active recall cements the mental model for the exam.