Election Study Guide

📖 Core Concepts Election – Formal group decision‑making where a portion or all of a population votes to choose individuals for public office or other positions. Electorate – The body of persons legally permitted to vote (citizenship, age, residency requirements). Suffrage – Legal right to vote; “universal adult male suffrage” existed early‑20th c., later extended to women. Electoral System – The rule‑set that converts votes into seats (e.g., plurality, majority, proportional). Party System – Pattern of interaction among parties: two‑party, multi‑party, or dominant‑party. Proportional Representation (PR) – Seats are allocated in proportion to each party’s share of the vote. Majority vs. Plurality – Majority: > 50 % of votes. Plurality: most votes, but not necessarily > 50 %. Runoff (Two‑Round) System – Second round held only if no candidate reaches a majority in the first round. Instant‑Runoff / Ranked‑Choice (IRV) – Voters rank candidates; lowest‑ranked eliminated and votes re‑distributed until someone has a majority. Single Transferable Vote (STV) – Multi‑member ranked system using a quota; surplus votes transferred, eliminations continue until all seats filled. Droop Quota – $ \displaystyle \text{Quota} = \left\lfloor \frac{\text{valid votes}}{\text{seats}+1} \right\rfloor + 1 $. --- 📌 Must Remember Plurality ≠ Majority – Winning candidate can have < 50 % in plurality elections. Runoff Requirement – Second round only if no candidate reaches > 50 % in round 1. PR Thresholds – Parties below the legal vote‑share threshold win no seats. Mixed‑Member Proportional (MMP) – Voter casts two votes (constituency + party list); final seat distribution matches party‑list vote share. Parallel Voting – Two votes without compensation; total seats = constituency seats + list seats. STV Quota – Use Droop formula; any candidate reaching quota is elected immediately. Approval Voting – Voters may select any number of candidates; most approvals wins. Fixed vs. Flexible Timing – Fixed dates = predictability; flexible (e.g., UK) = executive can call early election, often after favorable polls. Gerrymandering – Redrawing districts to give one party an advantage → violates political egalitarianism. --- 🔄 Key Processes Nomination Party pre‑selection → candidate list (full slate). Non‑partisan/Direct‑democracy → any eligible person may stand (subject to age/residency). Voting (Generic) Voter checks eligibility → receives ballot → marks according to system (single mark, rank, or approve). Counting Plurality / FPTP – Highest total wins. Runoff – Tally first round; if needed, repeat with top two. IRV – Eliminate lowest, transfer preferences; repeat until majority. STV – Compute quota, elect those reaching it, transfer surplus, eliminate lowest, repeat. PR (Party‑List) – Allocate seats proportionally (e.g., highest‑averages or Sainte‑Laguë). Seat Allocation (MMP) Assign constituency seats first. Calculate “overhang” if a party wins more constituencies than its proportional share. Add list seats to correct overall proportionality. Election Security Pre‑election risk assessment → physical & cyber safeguards → post‑election audit & recount. --- 🔍 Key Comparisons Plurality vs. Majority Plurality: winner needs only the most votes. Majority: winner must exceed 50 % of votes. IRV vs. STV IRV: single‑winner; eliminates lowest and re‑allocates until one candidate > 50 %. STV: multi‑winner; uses quota, transfers surplus, and eliminates repeatedly. Proportional Representation vs. First‑Past‑the‑Post (FPTP) PR: seats ≈ vote share; encourages multi‑party representation. FPTP: winner‑takes‑all in each district; tends to produce two‑party dominance. MMP vs. Parallel Voting MMP: list seats compensate to achieve overall proportionality. Parallel: list seats are added on top of constituency results (no compensation). Fixed vs. Flexible Election Dates Fixed: set schedule, reduces strategic early calls. Flexible: executive can call early, often exploiting favorable polls. --- ⚠️ Common Misunderstandings “IRV guarantees a majority winner.” It guarantees a relative majority after transfers, but not necessarily > 50 % of original votes. “SNTV is proportional.” SNTV (single‑non‑transferable vote) is a plurality system in multi‑member districts; it often benefits well‑organized parties, not proportional outcomes. “A higher voter turnout always means a more legitimate election.” Turnout is a proxy, but legitimacy also depends on fairness, free media, and absence of fraud. “Mixed‑Member systems always produce coalition governments.” MMP can still yield a majority if one party dominates the party‑list vote. --- 🧠 Mental Models / Intuition Quota = (Votes ÷ (Seats + 1)) + 1 → Think of it as “one vote more than what would allow an extra seat.” Runoff Logic: If nobody gets > 50 %, imagine the two strongest candidates merging their supporters; the second round tests who can capture the majority of the combined electorate. PR Threshold: Picture a “gate” – parties below the gate can’t pass, regardless of how many votes they have. --- 🚩 Exceptions & Edge Cases Droop Quota Rounding: The floor function means the quota is always just enough to prevent a tie for the last seat. Overhang Seats (MMP): When a party wins more constituency seats than its overall proportional share, the legislature temporarily expands. Electoral Threshold Waivers: Some jurisdictions exempt parties representing recognized minorities from the standard threshold. Ballot Exhaustion (IRV/STV): Voters whose ranked choices are all eliminated end up with “exhausted” ballots, effectively reducing the pool of active votes. --- 📍 When to Use Which Choose Plurality/FPTP when you need simple, fast results and a stable two‑party outcome is acceptable. Pick Runoff if you want a majority winner but cannot use instant‑runoff technology. Adopt IRV for single‑winner elections where you wish to reduce “spoiler” effects and encourage broader appeal. Use STV for multi‑member districts where proportionality and voter preference expression are priorities. Implement PR (Party‑List) when the goal is fair representation of all significant vote shares. Select MMP to combine local constituency links with overall proportional fairness. Opt for Parallel Voting when you want a mixed system but prefer a simpler, non‑compensatory design. Apply Approval Voting in non‑partisan or low‑information contexts to capture broad support. --- 👀 Patterns to Recognize “No majority → runoff” wording in a question signals a two‑round system. Presence of a quota formula = STV (or any quota‑based PR). Two votes on the same ballot = MMP or parallel voting; check if list seats adjust totals (MMP) or not (parallel). Threshold language (e.g., “5 % barrier”) points to party‑list PR. “Rank candidates” + “transfer votes” → ranked‑choice (IRV or STV). “Single non‑transferable” = SNTV – one vote per voter, multiple seats. --- 🗂️ Exam Traps Confusing plurality with majority – an answer stating “winner received > 50 %” is incorrect for a plurality system unless the vote share actually exceeds 50 %. Assuming IRV eliminates all “spoiler” effects – IRV can still produce strategic voting and may not guarantee the Condorcet winner. Mistaking “list seats” as “compensatory” – only MMP corrects for disproportionality; parallel voting does not. Overlooking thresholds – a party with 4.9 % of the vote in a system with a 5 % threshold wins no seats. Treating SNTV as proportional – it is a majoritarian system that can heavily favor organized parties. Equating “fixed election date” with “no early election” – some constitutions allow early dissolution despite a nominal fixed schedule. ---